By Kim Gorum

We know who's in, but who's moving on? Tuesday's release of the NCAA men's and women's draws provided no big surprises, but the tournament's first weekend almost certainly will. It always does.

Only once since the NCAA went to a 64-team, no-bye format in 1999 have all 16 seeds in either the men's or women's bracket survived the opening weekend. That was in 2007, when the top 16 women's teams lost a total of only nine points in advancing to the NCAA Championships in Athens, Ga. It's never happened in the men's tournament.

On average, upsets are more frequent on the men's side than the women's because the tournament field tends to be deeper, hence more unpredictable. In 16 seasons, 41 men's seeds have lost in the first two rounds -- including an astounding seven in 2004 -- compared to 31 women's seeds.

And as you'd expect, the overwhelming majority of those upsets involved lower seeds. Only seven top-8 seeds have exited the men's bracket early, and only six on the women's side. Of those, only two were top-4 seeds: the No. 1 Florida women in 2004 and the No. 3 Pepperdine men in 2000.

What you might not expect is that the Southeastern Conference, regarded historically as the nation's deepest league, has suffered a disproportionate share of the first-week upsets. Seventeen SEC men's seeds -- more than the ACC (7), Big 12 (6) and Pac-12 (3) combined -- have failed to reach the Round of 16. Something to consider as you puzzle out how the bracket is going to break.

The SEC has also had the most women's teams upset (7, tied with the ACC), but that number is basically proportional with the other power conferences (5 Pac-12, 4 Big 12).

Of course, your broker has probably warned you that past results are no guarantee of future returns. So let's take a look at how this year's matchups might work out. (Disclaimer: Predictions are for entertainment purposes only. Selections are not endorsed -- and probably disavowed entirely -- by the Baylor coaching staff).

WOMEN'S TOURNAMENT
() indicates overall NCAA seed; # indicates seeding within seeded team's pod

At Los Angeles

(1) Southern California over #4 Youngstown State: The Penguins (17-8) go unbeaten in the Horizon League, dominate the conference tournament, end the season with 11 straight wins, and open with the No. 1 team in the country. But at least they get a flight to LA out of the deal instead of a bus ride to Ann Arbor.

#3 Long Beach State over #2 Virginia Tech: The No. 32 Hokies (16-9) are 7-9 against ranked teams, but had only one win against the Top 30. Pretty lame for an ACC team. No. 38 Long Beach is 7-4 against ranked teams, and their best win is No. 31 Dartmouth. But The Beach has been to the NCAAs 11 times in 12 years (and is right down the road) while VT is making its first appearance in 15 years.

(1) Southern Cal over Long Beach: Trojans historically have not had much luck with beaches, but this one should pose no problem.

At Chapel Hill, N.C.

(2) North Carolina over #4 Quinnipiac: The latest polling confirms that MAAC champion Quinnipiac (14-8) is the longest shot in the field. The Bobcats' margin of error is zero.

#2 Dartmouth over #3 William & Mary: No. 31 Dartmouth (18-5) is 10-5 against ranked teams, including an upset of No. 33 Mississippi State, while No. 49 W&M (16-6) is 4-6. The showdown at No. 1 singles between the Big Green's #96 Taylor Ng (21-1) and the Tribe's #53 Leeza Nemchinov (19-1) is the best in the entire bracket -- and could be decisive.

(2) North Carolina over Dartmouth: Making its first NCAA appearance and winning its first match will have to suffice for Dartmouth. The 27-1 Heels are better on every line.

At Berkeley, Calif.

(3) California over #4 Bryant: Like their men's team, the Bulldogs rebounded from a slow start this spring (1-6), sweeping the Northeast Conference tournament to earn their first NCAA bid. Great accomplishment, but they're out of their weight class here.

#3 Mississippi State over #2 Houston: No. 33 MSU (15-11) is 7-10 against tournament teams, but only one win came on the road (South Carolina, in the SEC tourney). No. 30 Houston (20-6) is 2-3 after losing to Tulsa in the AAC tourney final.

(3) California over Mississippi State: With 2014 NCAA singles finalist Lynn Chi returning from injury -- at No. 5 singles -- Cal is among the favorites to win it all. Neither the Bulldogs nor Cougars can keep them from their appointment in Waco.

At Nashville, Tenn.

(4) Vanderbilt over #4 Murray State: It's been a great year for the Racers (17-3), who won the Ohio Valley and come into the postseason with an 8-game win streak. But Vandy will be the first ranked team they've faced, and it's going to be a shock to their system.

#2 Ohio State over #3 Oklahoma: Which is the reddest? Ohio State red, Oklahoma red, or OSU men's coach Ty Tucker's face if his Buckeyes were ranked 18th and got bracketed with the No. 4 seed? That was an easy one. Way easier than justifying the raw deal OSU's women got from the selection committee. The Buckeyes (20-6) had a chance to advance in Coral Gables, Lubbock, Stillwater or Tuscaloosa, but almost none in Nashville. Barring the loss of a key player, moving them 11 spots is close to out of bounds.

(4) Vanderbilt over Ohio State: As I was saying, the Commodores are superior across the board, so this match should be short and straightforward. The Buckeyes have won only 3 matches against ranked players in duals all year, and the 'Dores have a bunch of them.

At Gainesville, Fla.

(5) Florida over #4 Bethune-Cookman: The underdogs from Daytona Beach (22-8) make their first NCAA appearance in 14 years after sweeping the MEAC regular-season and tournament titles against 10-time defending champ S.C. State. Now comes the wipe-out.

#2 Georgia Tech over #3 Wichita State: The No. 36 Shockers (24-3) have become NCAA regulars with their ninth appearance in 10 years. But No. 24 Tech 16-9) has made 16 straight trips, won the title in 2007 and has 27 tournament wins (26 more than WSU). Still, this match may be closer than you think. Tech is underwater at multiple positions and the Shockers are a veteran team that's used to winning, so don't expect a two-hour snorer.

(5) Florida over Georgia Tech: I see nothing in GT's results that suggests they can keep this close, let alone win. You can bet the swamp on it. That's just a figure of speech, of course.

At Athens, Ga.

(6) Georgia over #4 Charleston Southern: Two-time Big South Player of the Year Marketa Placha led the Bucs (18-2) to their first conference title and NCAA berth, but they can't match the depth and firepower of Georgia.

#2 Duke over #3 Purdue: Duke (16-9) recovered from a slow start (5 straight losses to Top 20 teams in February) to go 11-3in the ACC with wins over No. 9 Virginia, No. 21 Clemson. The No. 41 Boilermakers (14-8) earned one of the last three at-large berths but beat only two tournament teams, No. 39 Arkansas and No. 48 Tulsa.

(6) Georgia over Duke: The No. 20 Blue Devils deserve better than a second-round match against the Bulldogs, whose strength at the bottom of the lineup will be too much for the 2014 quarterfinalists.

At Los Angeles, Calif.

(7) UCLA over #4 Idaho: The unranked Vandals (15-8) ended Sacramento State's 13-year run of Big Sky championships to earn their second straight NCAA bid -- and maybe a volume discount on the airfare to LA, where the Idaho men will open against USC. Probably get it to the return trip as well, because neither will be staying.

#2 Northwestern over #3 St. Mary's (Cal.): It's been a strange year for the No. 26 Wildcats (15-7), who earned their 17th straight NCAA bid despite not beating a Top 25 team, a first in coach Claire Pollard's tenure. They also saw their 16-year run of Big 10 regular-season or tournament titles end badly -- in the semfinals -- and haven't had a player ranked all year in singles, which is almost unheard of. But they're still the pick against the Gaels (14-9), who wouldn't be here but for an upset of Pepperdine in the regular-season finale.

(7) UCLA over Northwestern: Did you know? Both Pollard (1989) and UCLA coach Stella Sampras (1988) won NCAA doubles crowns as players. But as coaches, Sampras has several Stella Samprases on her team, while Pollard has no Claire Pollards.

At Waco, Tex.

(8) Baylor over #4 Northwestern State: The Lady Demons (16-8) earned their third NCAA berth in 6 years by sweeping the Southland Conference tourney, beating top seed Nicholls State in the final. But they haven't faced a team in the NCAA field since a 7-0 loss to LSU in their season opener.

#2 Rice over #3 Tulsa: Rice dominated the regular-season matchup between former Conference-USA rivals in Tulsa, 4-0, without dropping a set. With rankings of 28 and 48, the committee had to gerrymander the field like seasoned political operatives to put these two together in Waco.

(8) Baylor over Rice: The Bears won two earlier meetings with the Owls this season, 4-0, in Houston and Waco, dropping only 3 sets combined. The Bears may not pitch another shutout, but they're not going to be on the sideline watching the NCAAs played on their own courts, either.

At Charlottesville, Va.

(9) Virginia over #4 Virginia Commonwealth: The Rams (16-8) played almost everyone in Virginia and gave a good accounting, falling to the Cavs, VaTech and ODU but beating three others plus two more in the District. They opened the season with a 6-1 loss in Charlottesville, and in their 10th straight NCAA appearance and 15th overall are likely to close it the same way.

#2 South Carolina over #3 Princeton: The No. 29 Gamecocks' best wins came against Ole Miss, Kentucky, Mississippi State and Auburn, four teams with losing records in the SEC (a combined 18-34). No. 45 Princeton has more wins over ranked opponents, but their best were against No. 31 Dartmouth and No. 38 Long Beach. It's easy to see this match being close.

(9) Virginia over South Carolina: On the other hand, it's hard to see this one being close at all. SC has too many holes in the lineup to push the Cavaliers, who should get a rematch with Baylor in the Round of 16.

At College Station, Tex.

(10) Texas A&M over #4 Alcorn State: The Braves (10-11) have been living out of a suitcase all year, having played only two home matches, and won the SWAC's automatic bid despite losing the tournament final to perennial power Southern. But Alcorn State's Twilight Zone season will end in the first round in College Station.

#2 TCU over #3 Notre Dame: Like Ohio State, No. 17 TCU got sent to a much higher seed than their ranking had earned them, and is facing a much better first-round opponent in the No. 35 Irish. Even so, this seems a mismatch if the Frogs are on their game. Their three wins over NCAA seeds are as many as Notre Dame has over the Top 50.

(10) Texas A&M over TCU: Any Frog outrage over being sent to College Station is probably dampened because they beat A&M here in the regular season (and it's within easy driving distance of their fan base). But repeating that upset won't be easy now that they have coach Howard Joffe's attention.

At Ann Arbor, Mich.

(11) Michigan over #4 Miami, Ohio: The Redhawks (16-6) closed the season on an 11-0 run to win the MAC regular-season and tournament titles, hammering Wisconsin along the way. But Michigan is a far piece from Wisky these days .

#3 DePaul over #2 Kentucky: The Blue Demons (21-4) have won 13 of 14 and collected some pelts (Long Beach, Princeton, William & Mary, Indiana) en route to the Big East title. They're also 81-13 at 3-6 singles, which might give the 15-12 Wildcats pause if they weren't so busy treading water, having lost six straight matches over the last five weeks while scoring a total of two points.

(11) Michigan over DePaul: The Wolverines (24-3) look good for their third trip to the Round of 16 in four years. They have a huge homecourt edge, going 13-1 in Ann Arbor with the only loss to unbeaten North Carolina.

At Stillwater, Okla.

(12) Oklahoma State over #4 Boston University: The Terriers (14-7) have never won a match in 14 previous NCAA appearances, and could tie Illinois-Chicago's record for futility with a loss to the Cowgirls. Expect them to make history. But hey, this is the NCAAs. 0-15 is way better than 0-0.

#2 Arizona State over #3 Arkansas: How bad are the No. 39 Razorbacks? So bad that they lost to a conference opponent that went 0-13 in conference! (That would be Mizzou, in the SEC Tournament). And while No. 27 Arizona State may have been the fifth team in a four-team league this year, they did crush most everyone else on their schedule, outside of tight losses to Nos. 18 Ohio State, 19 Pepperdine and 25 Kentucky.

(12) Oklahoma State over Arizona State. It's hard to say a team isn't relevant when it's been to the NCAAs for 28 straight seasons. And the Sun Devils (15-7) aren't tourists. With 28 NCAA wins, they're not happy just to show up. The 21-5 Cowgirls, who lost to the only good team they've played in the last five weeks after cruising through the dregs of the Big 12 schedule, can avoid any potential upset by bringing more fire than they showed against Texas Tech in the conference tournament.

At Tuscaloosa, Ala.

(13) Alabama over #4 Samford: The Bulldogs (15-8) swept the Southern Conference regular-season and tournament titles to earn their first NCAA bid since 2008, but managed only two points in losses to Georgia, Auburn and Mississippi State. It'll be hard to find even one in Tuscaloosa.

#2 Clemson over #3 South Alabama: The No. 21 Tigers (16-9) were two wins away from being seeded, but couldn't get over the hump against Top 20 teams Georgia, Florida, Baylor, Virginia, North Carolina and Duke, all 4-3 losses. But home court shouldn't be an issue against No. 75 USA (21-2), making its first NCAA appearance in a decade after winning the Sun Belt title.

Clemson over (13) Alabama: The Tide surged to a 12-2 start before faltering midway through the SEC schedule with four losses in five matches, all by 4-3. Unlike Clemson, Bama did not win a 4-3 match all season, and only one closer than 4-1. What does that tell you? Baylor's Joey Scrivano, long an admirer of Tigers coach Nancy Harris, says she's the Bill Snyder of women's tennis, meaning her teams are always prepared, always well-coached and always dangerous regardless of talent level. I think this one is close, and Clemson finds a way to win it.

At Palo Alto, Calif.

(14) Stanford over #4 Stony Brook: The Seawolves (15-1) earned a fourth straight NCAA bid by rolling through the American East, but Stanford is going to hijack their pleasure cruise.

#2 Pepperdine over #3 Auburn: The Pac-12 has three of the five best teams in the country in USC, Cal and UCLA. Pepperdine (17-6) played all three to 4-3. Pepperdine is a contender. The SEC has more Top 25 teams than teams with winning records in conference. Auburn's only Top 40 win came against a Kentucky team in the middle of a 6-match collapse. Auburn is a pretender.

(14) Stanford over Pepperdine: Like coming in behind a weak serve, it's hard to be fully committed to this choice (details, see above). This is not your mother's Stanford, or even your older sister's. But the Cardinal has winning in its DNA, and in the NCAAs, that often trumps other considerations.

At Coral Gables, Fla.

(15) Miami, Fla. over #4 North Florida: The Ospreys (17-3) opened the season with a 4-0 loss to the Hurricanes in the ITA Team Indoor Qualifier. After winning nine straight down the stretch to sweep the Atlantic Sun crown and tournament, they get another shot at Miami after winning only one set in January.

#2 Mississippi over #3 Denver: The Pioneers (15-8) swept the Summit League championships but went 0-5 against the NCAA field. No. 23 Ole Miss (15-10) is just too strong up top with #10 Julia Jones (18-6 at 1) and #82 Arianne Hartono (9-5 at 2) and deep at the bottom to let Denver hang around.

(15) Miami over Mississippi: The Hurricanes have been too flaky to rule out an upset -- how DO you lose to VaTech 48 hours after beating Virginia in C'ville? -- but this match should be entirely on The U's racquets. Hard to see them coming out flat for this one.

At Lubbock, Tex.

(16) Texas Tech over #4 New Mexico State: The Aggies (13-10) pulled out of a late-season tailspin -- 5 losses in 6 matches -- to win the WAC tournament and earn the first NCAA bid in program history. But that first postseason win will have to wait.

#2 LSU over #3 New Mexico: The Lobos (16-9) won the Mountain West with a roster of underclassmen, but the Tigers' lineup is almost as young and a lot more explosive. No. 22 LSU (19-10) does have some head-scratchingly bad losses, but also enough good wins to be a legitimate Top 25 team.

(16) Texas Tech over LSU: If the Lady Raiders (19-6) were a more conventional team, LSU would be well-positioned to pull off the upset. But Tech gives people problems because they're quirky. With three lefties in the singles lineup, they give you a different look. And the lefties (all freshmen) are very hard to diagnose as well. By the time you figure out how to attack them, they've already beaten you. Add in the jumpiness of the balls at altitude, the wind on the High Plains and the Red Raiders' enthusiastic fans, and you've got an adult portion for even veteran teams. For the callow Tigers, it's likely to be too much information running through their brains.

Men's tournament
() indicates overall NCAA seed; # indicates seeding within seeded team's pod

At Norman, Okla.

(1) Oklahoma over #4 New Mexico State: I remember talking to Manhattan players in 2004 who were excited to play a Baylor team they expected to win the national championship (and they were right). That's probably the approach the Aggies should take.

#3 Harvard over #2 Northwestern: Rematch of Feb. 8 home match in which the Wildcats overcame a 3-1 deficit by winning the last 3 points in singles. But they're not in Evanston anymore.

(1) Oklahoma over Harvard: Crimson and Cream creams the Crimson.

At Waco, Texas

(2) Baylor over #4 Bryant: Just getting here was the biggest victory for the Bulldogs, who may be the first team to reach the NCAAs after opening their season 0-8.

#2 LSU over #3 Texas-San Antonio: Roadrunners fared well against common opponents, taking an A&M team (minus 2 starters) that shut out LSU twice to the last match on. If Tigers don't take them seriously, they could be trouble.

(2) Baylor over LSU: The Bears have never lost a second-round match in the NCAAs. There's a first time for everything, of course, but this isn't it.

At Charlottesville, Va.

(3) Virginia over #4 St. John's: This will be ugly. The Red Storm will be little more than a tempest in a teapot for the Cavaliers.

#2 Minnesota over #3 Princeton: The Tigers beat several tournament teams, including No. 20 Mississippi State, so 25th-ranked Minnesota will have its hands full.

(3) Virginia over #2 Minnesota: Like Baylor, the Hoos have never lost a home match in the NCAAs. And in their national championship season (2013), they skunked the Gophers in the second round. Deja vu?

At Champaign, Ill.

(4) Illinois over #4 Green Bay: Rematch of the Illini's 4-0 win Jan. 23 in Champaign, in which the Phoenix won 12 games combined in the five completed matches (2 doubles, 3 singles). Expect more of the same.

#3 Drake over #2 Louisville: Another rematch, between teams ranked 32 and 33. The Bulldogs won on Jan. 18 in Louisville, 5-2. Expect more of the same.

(4) Illinois over #2 Drake: Drake is a tough-minded team with lots of juice, and could push the Illini. But beating them is a whole 'nother deal .

At Fort Worth, Tex.

(5) TCU over #4 Marist: Frogs won't even blink against the Red Foxes. A little amphibian humor.

#2 Tulsa over #3 N.C. State: What the Wolfpack did best this year was lose close matches -- eight 4-3 losses to Top 40 teams. Eight! Don't be surprised by a ninth, State's superior talent notwithstanding. The windless, suffocating environment at TCU plays to Tulsa's advantage.

(5) TCU over Tulsa: Golden Hurricane played TCU close in a 4-0 home loss on Feb. 8. But their giant-killing reputation precedes them. They won't catch the Frogs napping.

At College Station, Tex.

(6) Texas A&M over #4 Eastern Kentucky: Both teams wear maroon and white. The Colonels' best chance may be to switch unis with the Ags.

#2 Oklahoma State over #3 New Mexico: After running the gauntlet that is the Big 12 schedule, facing the No. 39 Wolfpack must seem like a vacation to the Cowboys. Just don't forget, guys: it's a working vacation.

(6) Texas A&M over OSU: Aggies won 7 straight in the series before jumping to the SEC, but the Cowboys are a dangerous team with a veteran lineup and nothing to lose.

At Los Angeles, Calif.

(7) Southern Cal over #4 Idaho: USC has won 96 NCAA tournament matches and a record 21 national titles, including five in the last six years. Idaho made its first NCAA appearance last year and lost in the first round.

#2 San Diego over #3 San Diego State: The Toreros are one of the hottest teams going with 15 straight victories, including a 4-2 road win over the Aztecs on April 8.

(7) Southern Cal over San Diego: They've been inconsistent, but the Trojans are basically the same team that rolled to its fifth NCAA title in six seasons last year. Peter Smith always has them ready to play in the tournament.

At Athens, Ga.

(8) Georgia over #4 Winthrop: Winthrop is no stranger to the NCAAs -- this is their sixth appearance -- but they've never won a match. Georgia's 98 wins are surpassed only by UCLA (113) and Stanford (103).

#2 Florida State over #3 Troy: The Seminoles have nine wins over NCAA tournament teams, including a 4-0 victory over Troy on Jan. 17 in which they didn't drop a set. The rematch shouldn't be much closer.

(8) Georgia over FSU: The Bulldogs are 18-6 all-time against the Seminoles, including second-round wins in 2010 (4-3) and 2013 (4-1) in their only tournament matchups.

At Austin, Tex.

(9) Texas over #4 Navy: The Midshipmen played only four ranked teams (all between 50 and 75) and lost all of them going away. They can't compete with the top of the Longhorns' lineup.

#2 California over #3 A&M-Corpus Christi: Big danger for the Golden Bears is mistaking UT's Caswell Tennis Center for practice courts and playing with an appropriate intensity.

(9) Texas over California: If UT loses doubles -- which they do more often than not -- this could be anyone's match. And with Caswell seating no more than maybe 300 fans, it's not a huge home-court edge.

At Durham, N.C.

(10) Duke over #4 South Carolina State: The Blue Devils have gone cold, but not cold enough to lose this one.

#2 Stanford over #3 Tennessee: Two months ago, Paul Goldstein's team looked like it might miss the tournament altogether. Since then, they've won the Pac-12 regular-season title and lost only twice -- a meaningless match to Cal in the regular season finale (which they avenged with interest a week later) and the Pac-12 final to USC, both 4-3. Tennessee's best win: at No. 42 Georgia Tech.

Stanford over (10) Duke: The Blue Devils basically earned this bid in the first month of the season with wins over No. 12 Wake Forest, No. 4 Illinois, No. 6 TCU and No. 13 Ole Miss. Since then, they're 1-4 against the Top 25, including a 4-3 loss to then-No. 55 Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale and an early exit in the ACC Tournament. These are two teams arcing in different directions.

At Columbus, Ohio

(11) Ohio State over #4 Buffalo: The unranked Bulls (12-10) had won only 2 matches since Feb. 28 before beating Northern Illinois and Binghamton to win the MAC Tournament. This is an outrigger taking on an aircraft carrier.

#2 Vanderbilt over #3 Notre Dame: The 35th-ranked Irish played most opponents close, with a 7-4 record in 4-3 matches. Problem is, they were 0-4 against the Top 25, 7-0 against everyone else. Good, but not quite good enough.

(11) Ohio State over Vanderbilt: The Buckeyes have seen two streaks end this season -- a national-record 200 straight wins at home and a 10-year run against Big 10 opponents. But both came against Top 4 teams. There's no mistaking Vandy (or the Irish) for a Top 4 team, so expect OSU to make its 10th straight appearance at the final site.

At Winston-Salem, N.C.

(12) Wake Forest over #4 George Washington: The Colonials (13-12) were competitive with several ranked teams en route to their fourth A-10 title in five years, but keeping pace with the Demon Deacons requires a gear they don't have.

#2 Florida over #3 Pepperdine: The No. 39 Waves (17-9) struggled in their first season under former Texas Tech assistant Marcelo Ferreira, with freshman and sophomores accounting for 58 of their 67 singles wins. But they're still dangerous against a No. 22 Florida team with a recent history of underachievement.

(12) Wake Forest over Florida: Wake is 6-2 at home against Top 30 teams, losing only to No. 1 Oklahoma and No. 3 Virginia. The Gators (3-8 vs. Top 25) aren't in their company. The Deacs are vulnerable at the bottom of the order, but it's going to take a better team than Florida to exploit it.

At Chapel Hill, N.C.

(13) North Carolina over #4 William & Mary: The Tar Heels (21-10) are everyone's favorite pick to be ousted early, but not this early. William & Mary will have to settle for its first NCAA berth in 8 years.

#2 Mississippi State over #3 Denver: Only one player remains from Denver's stunning first-round upset of No. 15 Florida in 2013, but the school could still be an effective boogeyman for SEC coaches. As in, "Do what I say or the Pioneers are gonna getcha!" The Bulldogs haven't shown much in non-conference (1-3 vs. Top 40), but don't figure to be ambushed here.

Mississippi State over (13) North Carolina: If history holds, at least one of the bottom four seeds figures to lose this weekend. I'm betting on two. The Heels (21-10) have played the better schedule, but have mostly losses to show for it. Apart from two wins over No. 10 Duke, their best wins came against No. 16 UCLA and No. 25 Minnesota, both in February. The Bulldogs (19-7) have bitten No. 7 Georgia, No. 13 Ole Miss and No. 22 Florida in their last 9 matches. UNC has the home court and a stronger lineup, but MSU is hotter and healthier.

At Oxford, Miss.

(14) Mississippi over #4 Alabama State: Alabama State goes down swinging in its first NCAA appearance after winning the program's first SWAC title.

#2 Columbia over #3 Georgia Tech: Who's the real Rambling Wreck? The team that lost 7 of 8 in the season's closing weeks, or the one that climbed out of its NCAA Tournament grave to beat No. 10 Duke in the regular-season finale, then Notre Dame and No. 15 Virginia Tech in the ACC tourney and claimed the last at-large spot in the NCAAs? I think reports of Tech's reanimation have been greatly exaggerated.

(14) Mississippi over Columbia:Ole Miss is another favored victim in the upset pool, and why not? They're weak in doubles, not much better at the bottom end in singles, and they've been upset as a seed more than any school in tournament history: 2000 (as a 14), 2001 (12), 2004 (8) and 2013 (6). So why not now? Because my contrarian streak is showing. And maybe because I just think they've got more juice than Columbia or Georgia Tech, and more urgency than Rebel teams past.

At Blacksburg, Va.

(15) Virginia Tech over #4 East Tennessee State: ETSU has almost as many NCAA appearances (12, including 8 straight) as VT (14). But talent is a different matter.

#2 South Florida over #3 Boise State: One of the biggest mismatches between the 2-3 seeds, despite BSU's superior pedigree (10 NCAAs in 11 years). The No. 18 Bulls (19-6) are 9-5 against the NCAA field, with 3 losses to Top 10 teams. The best team the Broncos have faced is ... the Bulls, who punished them 4-0 at the Blue-Gray Classic in February. It shouldn't be close.

South Florida over (15) Virginia Tech: It's a lot harder to be ranked 18th playing in the AAC than to be ranked 15th playing in the ACC. You have to schedule a lot of difficult road and neutral-site matches, and win several. USF did that, and it was perfect preparation for the NCAAs. The Hokies are the deeper team, so the Bulls have fewer winning combinations. They probably have to win doubles, two matches in the top half and one in the bottom (where VT is clearly better). But all the pressure will be on the Hokies, especially if the Bulls start fast.

At Los Angeles

(16) UCLA over #4 Florida Gulf Coast: The unranked Eagles (17-5) earned their first NCAA appearance by coming from behind to beat North Florida on the road, 4-3, to win its first Atlantic Sun tournament title. Their reward: a 2,200-mile flight to face the winningest program in tournament history.

#2 Texas Tech over #3 UC-Santa Barbara: The Red Raiders beat Oklahoma. UCSB had to come from behind to beat Florida Gulf Coast -- at home -- in the last match on. What more do you need to know?

(16) UCLA over Texas Tech: If 19th-ranked Tech beats Texas in the Big 12 Tournament, this same match is probably being played in Lubbock, and it's a whole new ballgame. But in Westwood, despite their inconsistency and obvious weakness at the bottom of the order, the Bruins find a way to make their national-record 39th straight trip to the Round of 16.

Later this week: The women's tournament

Trivial matters
What are the top five schools in combined men's and women's NCAA Tournament dual-match wins? (See answer at end of column)

Surveying the field
A preview of some of the top contenders for the NCAA Championships in Waco beginning May 14

WOMEN: VANDERBILT Commodores

-- Record: 19-6 (11-2 in SEC, T2nd); def. Georgia, 4-2 in SEC Tournament final

-- Ranking: No. 4 on ITA computer (May 1); No. 4 seed in NCAAs

-- How their resume shapes up: The resume is no longer an issue since the bracket has been released, but the Commodores made the biggest jump of any seeded team in the rankings (from 9th) after beating No. 5 Florida and No. 7 Georgia to win the SEC Tournament. After a run of four losses in 10 days in early February (vs. Cal, vs. Oklahoma State, at USC and at Stanford), Vandy has gone on a 15-2 run marred only by road losses to Georgia and No. 10 Texas A&M. For the season, they're 4-4 against the Top 10 (dealing Florida its only two losses), and 10-6 against the Top 25.

-- Top players: At #42, Astra Sharma (Fr, Perth, Australia) has been a dual-match superstar with a 21-3 record, playing everywhere from 1 to 5 (which indicates some pretty creative lineup work by coach Geoff Macdonald). With #8 Sydney Campbell (So, Franklin, Tenn.), 14-9, and #96 Frances Altick (Jr, Monroe, La.), 16-8, at 1 and 3, the Commodores' top half can match up with anyone. And #61 Courtney Colton (Jr, Davie, Fla.), #120 Marie Casares (Sr, Quito, Ecuador) and Ashleigh Antal (Sr, Wilmington, N.C.) are competive at the bottom of the order with a combined 41-24 ledger.

-- NCAA Tournament history: 39-20 in 20 appearances, including a 4-0 loss to Stanford in the 2001 final. The Commodores have made the tournament for 20 straight seasons.

-- Record against Baylor: 7-1. Four of the 'Dores last five wins were by 4-3 margins, including Feb. 22 in Nashville. Baylor's only win, however, was their only meeting in the NCAA Tournament, a 4-2 decision in the 2006 Round of 16 at Stanford.

WOMEN: GEORGIA Bulldogs

-- Record: 20-6 (11-2 in SEC, T2nd); lost to Vanderbilt, 4-2, in SEC Tournament final

-- Ranking: No. 7 on ITA computer (May 1); No. 6 seed in NCAAs

-- How their resume shapes up: Georgia was a 4-3, last-match-on loss away from winning both the SEC regular-season title (vs. Florida) and tournament (vs. Vanderbilt), which could have vaulted them from the No. 6 seed to the No. 4. Even so, the Bulldogs are well-positioned to reach the final site and be in the mix for another title, with possible Round of 16 and quarterfinal matches against Michigan and California, both of whom they beat in the regular season.

-- Top players: Few teams are as strong at three different positions as the Bulldogs at 1, 5 and 6, where #5 Lauren Herring (Sr, Greenville, N.C.), #88 Hannah King (Fr, Dunwoody, Ga.) and Caroline Brinson (So, New Orleans) have compiled an eye-popping 48-8 combined mark. Add in #59 Kennedy Shaffer (Fr, Rossford, Ohio), 15-5 in duals, plus Silvia Garcia (Jr, Madrid, Spain) and Ellen Perez (Fr, Shellharbour, Australia) at the other spots and the Bulldogs have 6 tough outs. That's a good formula for winning it all.

-- NCAA Tournament history: 70-26 in 28 previous tournament appearances (1987-present), including NCAA titles in 1994 and 2000 (both 5-4 over Stanford) and a runner-up finish to the Cardinal (5-1) in 1987.

-- Record against Baylor: 8-3, including a 4-3 loss in this year's season-opener in Waco (indoors). The Bulldogs won the schools' only meeting in the NCAAs, 4-0, in the 2001 Round of 16 at Stone Mountain, Ga.

Previously previewed: North Carolina (Feb. 17), UCLA (March 4), Texas A&M (March 18), California and Florida (April 2), Southern Cal and Oklahoma State (April 18)

MEN: TEXAS A&M Aggies

-- Record: 21-4 (11-1 in SEC, T1st; beat Georgia in SEC Tournament final, 4-2)

-- Ranking: No. 3 on ITA computer (April 21), seeded 6th in NCAAs

-- How their resume shapes up: A&M's regular season was bookended by losses to TCU, the first a shocker, the second no surprise whatsoever. But in between, the Aggies were pretty salty, with an 18-2 mark that included wins over No. 1 Oklahoma, No. 12 Ohio State, No. 13 Mississippi, No. 18 Mississippi State, No. 21 Florida, No. 24 Vanderbilt and No. 27 LSU. Then they added sprinkles to their regular-season co-championship by beating LSU, Mississippi State and No. 7 Georgia for their second straight SEC Tournament title.

-- Top players: The upperclassmen have the reputations and the rankings, but few teams in the country have gotten bigger contributions from freshmen this season than the Aggies. For openers, #81 A.J. Catanzariti (Fr, Pittsburgh, PA) is 19-4 playing mostly at 5 -- as many wins as A&M Big Three #48 Jeremy Efferding (10-3), #71 Shane Vinsant (6-3) and #72 Harrison Adams (3-9) combined. #82 Arthur Rinderknech (Fr, Paris, France) is 13-3 at 3 and 4, including back-to-back 3-setters to win the last match on against then-No. 5 Ohio State and No. 1 Oklahoma, while Jordi Arconado (Fr, San Juan, Puerto Rico) is 9-3 at 4, 5 and 6. In fact, the three freshmen combined to win the clinching match in nine of the Aggies' 21 wins, including all three that were decided in the final match.

-- NCAA Tournament history: 30-21 in 21 previous appearances, the last 19 in succession. The Aggies have made the NCAA Round of 16 10 times, but advanced only once and have never gone beyond the quarters. But this year they posted their best conference record ever (11-1) and earned their second-highest seed, and are in line for their best finish since the 2001 team went 27-4 and reached the quarterfinals. And if A&M goes deep into the tournament, you can bet Aggie Nation will show up in force.

-- Record against Baylor: 33-20-1. The Aggies at one point were 27-1-1 in the Battle of the Brazos, but the Bears owned them during the Big 12 era, winning 19 of the last 25 and 13 of 14 from 2002-09. While the teams split four meetings in the Big 12 Tournament, the Bears are 4-0 against the Aggies in the NCAAs, outscoring them 16-3. The only way they'll meet this year is if both teams reach the semifinals.

MEN: TEXAS Longhorns

-- Record: 19-6 (2-3 in Big 12, T4th)

-- Ranking: No. 10 on ITA computer (April 21), seeded 9th in NCAAs

-- How their resume shapes up: Five of the Longhorns' six losses were against No. 1 Oklahoma (2), No. 2 Baylor, No. 4 Illinois and No. 6 TCU, but they wore out the rest of the schedule, piling up wins over No. 11 Wake Forest, No. 12 Ohio State (avenging a loss in the ITA Indoors), No. 16 North Carolina, No. 17 Texas Tech (2), No. 20 Columbia, No. 23 Minnesota, No. 28 Tulsa and No. 29 Oklahoma State.

-- Top players:Fourth-ranked Soren Hess-Olesen (Sr, Aarhus, Denmark) became the first Longhorn in the Big 12 era to reach No. 1 after a 15-0 start in dual matches, but lost 3 of his 5 league matches in straight sets. Still, he's 17-5 against ranked opponents this year and has always played at a high level in the NCAAs, where he's 5-1 in singles and 5-0 in doubles in dual matches. With #42 Lloyd Glasspool (Sr, Birmingham, England), 12-4 at 2, and #54 Adrien Berkowicz (Sr, Aix-en-Provence, France), 16-5 at 3, Texas can match up with most teams at the top of the lineup. But the Horns have struggled for answers at the bottom half, where they're a composite 34-24 and only Clement Homs (Sr, Aix-en-Provence, France) has distinguished himself, with a 8-1 ledger. And with an 11-13 mark in the doubles point -- the worst of any tournament seed -- Texas often finds itself behind early against elite opponents, putting even more pressure on the top of the lineup.

-- NCAA Tournament history: 48-32 in 32 appearances. The Longhorns have been to the NCAAs every season since 1992, advancing to the finals in 2008 (a 4-2 loss to Georgia) and to the semis three other times. They've never won the team title, but lead all Texas schools with four singles crowns (most recently Steve Bryan in 1990) and five more in doubles (John Hickman and Felix Kelley, 1944).

-- Record against Baylor: The BU record book lists only results since 1970, and gives Texas a 40-20 edge. But UT has the margin at 79-21-1. The Bears have dominated the series in recent years, winning 19 of 23 meetings since 2000 and nine straight in Austin.

Previously previewed: UCLA (Feb. 17), Georgia (March 4), Southern Cal (March 18), Oklahoma and Illinois (April 2), Virginia and TCU (April 18)

Trivia answer .Stanford is No. 1 in most combined NCAA Tournament wins with 236 (133 women, 103 men), followed by UCLA with 194 (113 men, 81 women), Southern Cal with 171 (96 men, 65 women), Georgia with 168 (98 men, 70 women) and Florida with 142 (102 women, 40 men).

Correction The Road to Waco took a wrong turn in the last installment after your correspondent consulted the Pac-12 record book and came up short in reading comprehension. Thus, our rundown of the Top 12 schools with the most combined regular-season and conference tournament championships in tennis over the last decade (2005-14) had a couple errors.

Here are the updated totals: 1. Baylor 29 (16 women, 13 men), 2. Virginia 21 (19M, 2W), 3. (tie) Georgia 17 (10M, 7W) and Ohio State 17 (17M), 5. Florida 16 (13W, 3M), 6. Northwestern 15 (15W), 7. Texas 10 (6M, 4 W), 8. UCLA 9 (8M, 1W), 9. (tie) Georgia Tech 8 (8W), Stanford 8 (7W, 1M) and Southern Cal 8 (5M, 3W), 12. Duke 7 (6W, 1M). Comments or corrections? Email me at kimgorum@gmail.com.