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Road to Waco: Previewing the NCAA Championships

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Women's Tennis 4/20/2015 12:00:00 AM
April 20, 2015

Editor's Note: The following is a survey of the current college tennis landscape provided by former Waco Tribune-Herald sports editor, Kim Gorum. Baylor will host the NCAA Championships for the first time, May 14-25, 2015, at the Hurd Tennis Center. This bi-weekly series is meant to give the Central Texas community a look at what to expect when the nation's top teams come to Waco.

By Kim Gorum

With teams making a final seedings push over the next few days in their conference tournaments, many questions remain unsettled just three weeks before the NCAAs begin. Here are some that occurred to us, with our best guesses about how it all shakes out.

Q: Are the Baylor men really going to share a conference title with an Oklahoma team that beat them three times this season?

A: If the Bears beat Texas Tech on Saturday, they won't turn down the trophy. But will they win? We think they will, but it's pretty close to a tossup. For his part, BU coach Matt Knoll is a little reluctant to classify the Red Raiders' win over top-ranked Oklahoma last Sunday as an upset.

"It's not a surprise that Tech beat OU out there," he said. "It's an incredibly tough place to play, we all know that, with a great fan base in every sport. I'm not surprised. It's hard to go through this thing undefeated."

It's natural to focus on Tech's rabid fan base and the often windy conditions on the High Plains. But let's not forget the players. While OU and Baylor have commanded most of the headlines this season, with Texas lurking close behind and TCU maybe the biggest surprise in college tennis, Tech has quietly put together a Top 25 resume -- one that suddenly became a host-team resume with the marquee win over the Sooners.

"I think anytime you're playing a group that has powerful belief, you've got a challenge on your hands," Knoll said. "Human history is full of people overcoming great odds when they have great belief. And after winning against Oklahoma, they're going to have that."

And that's not the Bears' only challenge. There's also the pressure.

The pressure to win, sure. But just as significantly, the barometric pressure.

"People don't talk about this much, but it's at altitude there," Knoll explained. "In tennis, when you get to a certain altitude, you play with a different pressurized ball. And they're not quite that high, so you're playing in the toughest situation you can play in, because you're playing with a regular ball at maximum altitude. So the ball just flies differently, and it takes a while to get used to it. It's hard to play your best tennis in an environment that you're just not used to."

After last week's big win over Baylor, OU coach John Roddick had less than 48 hours to get his team to Lubbock and ready to play. Preparation time was at a minimum after the taxing victory in Waco, and it proved costly.

Determined not to make that mistake, Knoll took his team straight to Lubbock on Thursday morning after Wednesday night's win over Texas, to give his players plenty of time to get acclimated to the conditions in Lubbock.

The Bears may not win the match, but at least they've given themselves the best chance to prepare for it.

Q: Do you foresee an upset on the men's side that could affect Baylor's seeding, for better or for worse?

A: It's already happened, but we certainly didn't foresee it. When Illinois dropped a 4-3 road match to No. 33 Minnesota on Friday, it all but guaranteed that Virginia would overtake the Illini for third in next week's ITA rankings, thus keeping Baylor at No. 2 barring a Virginia loss in the ACC Tournament. If Illinois remains third on the ITA computer, the Illini will almost certainly be seeded No. 2 ahead of the Bears, based upon their season-opening win in Waco. As a practical matter, it may not matter much. If the seedings hold, both Virginia and Illinois are more than capable of beating the Bears, even on Baylor's own courts (though we suspect that Virginia would have a better chance than Illinois to clear Oklahoma from BU's championship path.

Q: What are the chances of Virginia being upset in the ACC Tournament?

A: Let's put it this way: the Cavaliers lost as many points in two matches against Baylor (9) as they have in 13 against ACC opponents (11 conference matches plus two more against Louisville and North Carolina in the ITA National Team Indoors). Wake Forest is the only team that managed even two points against them (at Winston-Salem), and this is a league with four teams in the Top 15 and four more in the Top 40. Sure, the tournament is in Carolina, but Virginia hasn't won 135 straight against league opponents by overlooking anyone. If you want to put a number on it, we're guessing that the ACC field is no better than 5-1 to take down the Hoos next week.

Q: What about the women's bracket. Are there possible upsets that could affect Baylor's seeding?

A: Well, if the LSU women were to upset Texas A&M in the SEC quarters ... wait, that's already happened, too. Okay, bear with me. What the BU women really need right now is to reach the Big 12 Tournament final and beat (in order of preference) No. 10 Oklahoma State, No. 15 Texas Tech or No. 19 TCU, giving them another key ratings win. If OSU cooperates in this scheme, push the Bears past A&M and right behind Georgia, which would enable them to leapfrog the Bulldogs in the NCAA seeding process, based upon their season-opening 4-3 win in Waco in January. But they also need for someone to beat Georgia in the SEC Tournament, because otherwise the Bulldogs could move ahead of one of the idle Pac-12 teams in front of them, and the Bears have to be adjacent to Georgia in the final rankings to leapfrog them in the seedings. Florida is the most likely Dawg-slayer in the SEC field, but must avoid an upset against Vanderbilt because a Vandy win would probably keep the Commodores close enough to the Bears to leapfrog them based upon BU's 4-3 loss in Nashville in February. Confused? So are we. Let's move on.

Q: Will we see anything in the NCAA Championships this year that we've never seen before?

A: Maybe. We've never had four teams from the same conference reach the semifinals of either the men's or women's tournament, but that possibility exists in both brackets this year. It's a longshot, not least because there are so many moving parts. First, the bracket has to break just right to keep all the conference teams out of each other's way, something that depends upon not only how those teams finish their seasons, but how all the teams around them finish as well. Arnold Rothstein would have gone broke trying to fix all those outcomes. And even if the bracket miraculously works out, all four teams have to take care of business -- not once, not twice, but four times. Twice in the opening rounds, then twice more in the Round of 16 and the quartersfinals.

Still, it's within the realm of possibility. The most obvious scenario to fans in these parts is on the men's side, with Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU, Texas and/or Texas Tech making their way through the minefield to reach the semifinals. Those teams all have the added advantage of being very familiar with not only the venue and the court surface, but with Waco itself. They already have their favorite hotels and restaurants and know how to get around without getting lost. It makes a difference.

Less obvious to local fans, perhaps, is the possibility that the Pac-12 could do the same thing on the women's side with current No. 2 USC, No. 4 California, No. 5 UCLA and No. 11 Stanford. It may even be the more likely scenario, given those teams' championship pedigrees (Cal is the only school in that mix without multiple NCAA crowns, and they've been to the finals twice). By contrast, the Big 12 men have one championship between them.

No room here to work out all the permutations, but keep your fingers crossed when the brackets are released in the next 10 days or so.

If the NCAAs began today ...
Here's how the men's and women's draws would be seeded:

MEN: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Illinois, 3. Baylor, 4. Virginia, 5. Georgia, 6. TCU, 7. Texas A&M, 8. Duke, 9. Southern Cal, 10. Ohio State, 11. Texas , 12. Wake Forest, 13. Mississippi, 14. Virginia Tech, 15. North Carolina, 16. Texas Tech
This scenario could produce an NCAA Round of 16 meeting between Baylor and Virginia Tech, whom the Bears beat 6-1 in 2009 in Waco, their only meeting in Matt Knoll's 19 seasons at the helm.

WOMEN: 1. North Carolina, 2. Southern Cal, 3. Florida, 4. California, 5. Georgia, 6. UCLA, 7. Texas A&M, 8. Vanderbilt, 9. Baylor, 10. Oklahoma State, 11. Stanford, 12. Virginia, 13. Alabama, 14. Michigan, 15. Texas Tech, 16. Miami
Baylor would be in line for a Round of 16 rematch with Vanderbilt under this scenario, after dropping a 4-3 decision to the 'Dores in Nashville on Feb. 22.

NOTE: The seedings mimic the ITA computer rankings for the most part, but the tournament committee takes into account head-to-head victories between teams adjacent in the rankings. For instance, while the Baylor men are ranked ahead of Illinois by the ITA computer, the committee would move the Illini ahead of the Bears based upon their head-to-head win in January.

Trivial matters
Over the last decade, which major-conference school's tennis programs have won (or shared) the most combined regular-season and conference tournament championships? (See answer at end of column)

By the numbers
-- Baylor has the best doubles mark among the nation's elite teams with a 21-1 mark in the doubles point, but the Virginia Cavaliers could make a case that they have the nation's most dominant doubles lineup. The Hoos have a 45-7 mark in team doubles matches through Friday, compared to the Bears' 50-9 ledger in duals. And that argument might have held water ... if Baylor hadn't handed the Cavs four of those seven losses in their two meetings.
-- Oklahoma junior Axel Alvarez became the third Big 12 player in as many ranking periods (and the first Sooner in history) to reach No. 1 in the ITA men's singles rankings when he leapfrogged Baylor's Julian Lenz this week to take over the top spot, just 4 days after a come-from-behind 3-set win against Lenz that clinched OU's 4-3 win in Waco. Lenz took over the top spot two weeks ago from Texas senior Soren Hess-Olesen.

Who's hot
-- RYAN SHANE, Virginia Cavaliers: The junior from Falls Church, Va., is the only player ranked in the top five in both men's singles (No. 4) and doubles (No. 5) on the ITA computer. Shane is 15-4 in dual-match singles, including 7-4 against ranked players, and 25-6 overall. He's won his last six matches without dropping a set, and his four losses this spring came against No. 1 Axel Alvarez (Oklahoma), No. 2 Julian Lenz (Baylor), No. 9 Quentin Monaghan (Notre Dame) and No. 10 Romain Bogaerts (Wake Forest).

In doubles, Shane and partner Luca Corinteli are 13-1 in dual matches, 20-3 overall, and haven't lost since dropping a 7-5 decision to TCU's Will Stein and Nick Chappell in the opening round of the ITA National Team Indoor on Feb. 13 in Chicago.

-- CAROL ZHAO, Stanford Cardinal: The sophomore all-American from Richmond Hill, Ontario, is 17-2 in dual matches this season, all at No. 1 singles, and 26-4 overall, including 14-2 against ranked opponents. In her two seasons at The Farm, she's 36-4 in duals and 56-11 overall. After ending her freshman campaign at No. 22 on the ITA computer, she's currently No. 2 behind UCLA rival Robin Anderson and could jump to No. 1 next week with a win over No. 3 Meagan Manasse of California, whom she beat in a third-set tiebreaker on March 1 in the teams' first meeting.

In doubles, Zhao and partner Taylor Davidson are also ranked No. 2, with a 13-3 mark in duals and 25-5 overall, including 11-2 against ranked teams.

Surveying the field
A preview of some of the top contenders for the NCAA Championships in Waco beginning May 14

WOMEN: Southern California Trojans
-- Record: 21-2 (10-0 in Pac-12)
-- Ranking: No. 2 on ITA computer (April 14)
-- How their resume shapes up: When you complete an unbeaten run through the Pac-15, you don't need much more to put yourself in the Top 5. But along with their victories over No. 4 California (home and away), No. 5 UCLA and No. 11 Stanford, the Women of Troy have stacked up Ws against No. 9 Vanderbilt, No. 14 Michigan, No. 18 Pepperdine (twice), No. 20 Kentucky and No. 26 Arizona State. Most years, that would be more than enough to nail down the No. 1 seed in the NCAAs. But with a 26-0 mark entering next weekend's ACC Tournament, North Carolina still has a firm grip on that honor.
-- Top players: One of the USC women's great strengths is that coach Richard Gallien could probably pull his lineup out of a hat and still make the Final Four. They're not unbeatable at any position, but they generally find a way to get to 4. Even after spotting UCLA a 3-0 lead in the season finale, they rallied from a set down at three different positions to beat the No. 6 Bruins, 4-3. Nineteenth-ranked Sabrina Santamaria (Sr, Los Angeles), 13-3 in duals, and #13 Giuliana Olmos (Jr, Fremont, CA), 15-4, have been solid all season for USC, while #61 Zoë Scandalis (Sr, San Diego), a returning all-American, is 12-6 at the top 3 positions. #79 Meredith Xepoleas (Fr, Rancho Mirage, CA) has been USC's best point with a 16-2 mark (9-0 in Pac-12), and #75 Gabby Smith (Fr, Henderson, NV), 13-6 in duals, and #78 Madison Westby (Fr, Tulsa), 15-4, have also produced big wins in the bottom half.
-- NCAA Tournament history: 65-31 in 32 NCAA appearances, including the 1983 and 1985 national championships. The Women of Troy also won AIAW national titles in 1977-79-80 and the USTA crown in 1978, before the NCAA sponsored women's athletics.
-- Record against Baylor: 1-2. The Bears have won both regular-season meetings between the teams in Los Angeles, including a 4-3 decision last year. But the Trojans won their only NCAA matchup, 4-1, in 2012 in the Round of 16 at College Station.

WOMEN: Oklahoma State Cowgirls
-- Record: 18-4 (5-2 in Big 12)
-- Ranking: No. 10 on ITA computer (April 14)
-- How their resume shapes up: With 11 victories over Top 40 teams, including No. 9 Vanderbilt, No. 15 Texas Tech and No. 22 Mississippi, plus road wins against No.19 TCU and No. 25 Georgia Tech, the Cowgirls are a cinch to be seeded in the NCAAs if they can avoid upsets this weekend at Iowa State and West Virginia. And if they find a way to win their first Big 12 Tournament since 2003 next weekend, they'll have a strong case for a Top 8 seed, especially if they beat Baylor and Tech to do it.
-- Top players: Viktoriya Lushkova (So, Simferopol, Ukraine), the Big 12's highest-ranked player at #16 in singles, is 10-3 (2-1 Big 12) at 1, but Vladica Babic (Fr, Podgorica, Montenegro) has been the team's best point with a 14-2 mark (4-1 in conference) at 3 and 4. #109 Katarina Adamovic (So, Cakac, Serbia) is 10-5 (3-1) at 2 and 3, while Carla Tur Mari (So, Ibiza, Spain) and Maria Alvarez (Jr, Zaragoza, Spain) have been hard to beat at the bottom of the lineup with a combined mark of 26-8 at 4 and 5.
-- NCAA Tournament history: The Cowgirls are 5-15 in 15 NCAA appearances, and have not reached the Round of 16 since losing in the semifinals to Trinity in 1986 and California in 1985. But this should be OSU's best shot at a deep run in three decades.
-- Record against Baylor: 5-20. The Cowgirls have lost 15 of the last 16 against the Bears dating to 2004, and most of them weren't close. But OSU upset Baylor, 4-3, two years ago in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals in Norman.

Previously previewed: North Carolina (Feb. 17), UCLA (March 4), Texas A&M (March 18), California and Florida (April 2)

MEN: Virginia Cavaliers
-- Record: 18-3 (10-0 in ACC)
-- Ranking: No. 4 on ITA computer (April 14)
-- How their resume shapes up: Although they're a little short on Top 10 wins (No. 7 TCU, No. 8 Duke), the Cavaliers have been one of the most dominant teams in the country. Their closest win all season was a 5-2 victory at #12 Wake Forest; the others were 4-0 or better. Virginia's only losses came against No 1 Oklahoma and No. 2 Baylor (twice), and the Cavs lost more points in those 3 matches (13) than in their 18 wins combined (8). They have extended their ACC win streak to a record 135 matches with Ws against No. 14 Virginia Tech, No. 15 North Carolina (twice), No. 30 Louisville (twice), No. 32 Florida State, No. 36 N.C. State and No. 37 Notre Dame.
-- Top players: Fourth-ranked Ryan Shane (Jr, Falls Church, VA) and #20 Mitchell Frank (Sr, Annandale, VA) give Virginia as good a 1-2 punch as anyone in college tennis. Between them, they are 29-7 in dual matches, with four of the losses coming against Baylor and OU. Meanwhile, #16 Thai-Son Kwiatkowski (So, Charlotte, N.C.) is 16-3 in duals, 33-6 overall, and was ranked No. 1 for four weeks this spring despite playing almost all of his matches at 3 and 4. Freshman Collin Altamirano (Sacramento, CA) has been the Hoos' toughest out, with a 16-1 mark playing 1 through 4, while underclassmen J.C. Aragone (So, Yorba Linda, CA) and Henrik Wiersholm (Fr, Kirkland, WA) have dominated at 5 and 6 down the stretch with a combined 26-5 mark.
-- NCAA Tournament history: 45-15 in 16 appearances. Virginia's postseason history parallels that of Baylor (48-16). The Cavaliers made their first tournament in 1997, a year ahead of the Bears, struggled early, then broke through in the mid-2000s to become a consistent power. They have reached the NCAA quarterfinals for 10 straight seasons, surpassing BU's mark of nine in a row from 2003-11, and reached the title match three straight times (2011-13), losing to Southern Cal twice before winning their first NCAA crown against UCLA.
-- Record against Baylor: 8-5. The Cavaliers had won seven straight in the series, including NCAA Tournament victories in 2008 and '14, before the Bears upset them in the ITA Team Indoors in February and won a rematch in Waco two weeks later.

MEN: TCU Horned Frogs
-- Record: 19-6 (2-2 in Big 12)
-- Ranking: No. 7 on ITA computer (April 14)
-- How their resume shapes up: The Frogs were ranked 37th to open the season before sneaking up on now-No. 6 Texas A&M in the ITA Indoor Qualifier. But they proved it was no fluke by dropping a 4-0 hammer on the SEC champs last week in Fort Worth. Not that they needed to prove anything. TCU has done that all season, with wins over No. 3 Illinois, No. 16 Texas Tech, . No. 21 South Florida, No. 25 LSU, No. 26 Tulsa and No. 29 Oklahoma State. The Frogs' six losses are more than any other Top 10 team, but five of the six are in the Top 12 (plus No. 19 UCLA). And they're 10-1 in the last month.
-- Top players: The Frogs have probably fielded more lineups than any team in the Top 25, as three regulars have played five different positions and only #44 Nick Chappell has played fewer than three. Chappell (Sr, Indianapolis) is 11-4 in duals and 18-6 overall, and has replaced #43 Cameron Norrie (Fr, Auckland, New Zealand) at No. 1 singles. With a 17-1 record in duals, #47 Guillermo Nunez (Fr, Santiago, Chile) has been practically bulletproof wherever he's played, and he's played everywhere but No. 1. After going 6-7 at 1, Norrie has found a groove with a 5-1 mark at 2 and 3, while Arnau Dachs (Sr, Vic, Spain) and #121 Facundo Lugones (Sr, Buenos Aires, Argentina) have been dependable in the lower half with 13-5 and 13-4 marks, respectively.
-- NCAA Tournament history: 26-25 in 25 appearances. The Frogs' deepest runs came in 1989 and in 2001, when they lost in the national semifinals to Georgia and Tennessee, respectively. The Frogs have not reached the final site since a 4-2 loss to Clemson in the Round of 16 in 2004.
-- Record against Baylor: 32-19 all-time, 0-4 in Big 12 era. TCU won the last 27 meetings as members of the SWC, but Baylor has since turned the tables, winning 15 straight and 18 of the last 20 in the series. The Frogs have won two of three meetings in the NCAA Tournament, including a 4-1 victory in 2000 that marked the Bears' last loss to an in-state team in the NCAAs. BU is 16-2 all-time against in-state opponents in the postseason.

Previously previewed: UCLA (Feb. 17), Georgia (March 4), Southern Cal (March 18), Oklahoma and Illinois (April 2)

Trivia answer
The Baylor men's and women's teams won or shared a combined 29 regular-season and conference tournament titles from 2005-14, eight more than runner-up Virginia over that span. The BU women won 16 championships (9 regular-season and 7 Big 12 Tournaments), while the men won 13 (8 regular-season, 5 tournaments). By contrast, the Virginia men won 10 regular-season and nine tournament crowns, while the women won both the ACC regular-season and tournament titles in 2014.

Here are the rest of the decade's Top 12 biggest-winning tennis schools: 3. (tie) Georgia, 17 (10 men: 4 regular-season, 6 tournament; 7 women: 4 RS, 3 T), and Ohio State, 17 (17 men: 9 RS, 8 T); 5. Florida, 16 (13 women: 6 RS, 7 T; 3 men: 1 RS, 2 T); 6. Northwestern, 15 (15 women: 6 RS, 9 T); 7. Texas, 10 (6 men: 4 RS, 2 T; 4 women: 1 RS, 3T); 8. (tie) Georgia Tech, 8 (8 women: 4 RS, 4 T), and Stanford, 8 (7 women RS, 1 men RS); 10. (tie) Duke, 7 (6 women: 2 RS, 4 T; 1 men T); Southern Cal, 7 (4 men RS, 3 women RS); and UCLA, 7 (6 men RS, 1 women RS).

Note that the Pac-12's conference tournament is an individual rather than team event, so Stanford, Southern Cal and UCLA totals include only regular-season championships.

Comments or corrections? Email me at kimgorum@gmail.com.

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Players Mentioned

Julian Lenz

Julian Lenz

6' 2"
Freshman

Players Mentioned

Julian Lenz

Julian Lenz

6' 2"
Freshman