blog kayezone 10may html
Last Edition of Bracketology We're about 90 minutes away from today's NCAA Division I Baseball Championship selection show. The Bears will find out where they'll be headed for their 11th regional in 13 years during the 30-minute show on ESPN. With that in mind, let's take a look at the final projections from various web sites around the country. Aaron Fitt of Baseball America projects the following, while also saying that Baylor is the first No. 3 seed (meaning the Bears are right on the edge of being a No. 2 seed): ATLANTA, GA. REGIONAL Jeremy Mills of ESPNU sees the Bears renewing an old Southwest Conference rivalry: FAYETTEVILLE, ARK. REGIONAL Kendall Rogers of Yahoo! Sports NCAA Baseball agrees with Mills' assessment, but has the Bears seeded third: FAYETTEVILLE, ARK. REGIONAL Mark Rafferty of The College Baseball Blog thinks Baylor is headed to the Bluegrass State: LOUISVILLE, KY. REGIONAL Mark Etheridge of SEBaseball.com has the Bears heading north on I-35: FORT WORTH, TEXAS REGIONAL Last but not least, Ping! Baseball sees the Bears traveling west to renew a regional rivalry: TEMPE, AZ. REGIONAL That's all for now, but don't forget to follow The Kaye Zone on Twitter. Sic em. Big 12 Championship Rewind It's time to take a deep breath and think back on where the Bears were a few weeks ago. After being swept in three close games against top-ranked Texas, Baylor sat at 7-12 in Big 12 play, sitting on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble in every national projection. With two Big 12 series remaining (and one of those in Lubbock, where Baylor hadn't won a series since 1998), we knew the Bears would need to start playing really well to make late run at the program's 11th NCAA tournament bid in the last 13 years. Consider it done. Baylor closed the regular season with wins in six of its last seven games, leading us to think it needed just one more win in the Big 12 Championship to secure an at-large bid. We figured two would almost certainly be enough, but the Bears removed any doubt by sweeping their pool before dropping an extra-inning heartbreaker in the title game. That game hurt. The Bears got one of the best starting pitching performances in a postseason game in program history, and it would've been hard to script a better scenario than having a 3-0 lead with six outs remaining and Logan Verrett and Brooks Pinckard available out of the bullpen. But, baseball can be a cruel game, and the Bears just couldn't hold on. As much as it hurts to say this, you have to give credit to Texas Agrilcultural & Mechanical. The Aggies are playing really well right now, and their late comeback just makes Willie Kempf's dominating performance look even more impressive. If the Bears had been able to get those last six outs, Kempf would've been the tournament's Most Outstanding Player and the Bears would've gone home with a trophy and a ring. It could've been a great end for a deserving senior class, but there's one problem with that - it's not the end. Ask anyone on the Bears' roster, and we're willing to bet they would all trade a Big 12 Championship title for a Regional crown. The way the Bears are playing right now, it would be crazy to count them out, no matter where they get sent tomorrow. One last if ... if the Bears had won Sunday, they would have the fourth-longest active winning streak in the nation heading into the NCAA tournament. One extra-inning loss shouldn't diminish the Bears' late-season charge. PLAYER OF THE WEEK Raynor Campbell, Senior, 2B, Katy, Texas (Taylor HS) PITCHER OF THE WEEK
That's all for now, but don't forget to follow The Kaye Zone on Twitter. Sic em. Bricktown Schedule Finalized Baylor completed its sweep of Oklahoma State on Sunday to lock up the No. 6 seed in the Big 12 Baseball Championships. It was the Bears' first Big 12 series sweep since finishing off Kansas on April 6, 2008, and it couldn't have come at a better time. Four of this weekend's five Big 12 series resulted in sweeps. In addition to Oklahoma State being swept by Baylor, Kansas was swept at home by Oklahoma, Missouri was swept at home by Texas and Texas Tech was swept at Nebraska. Two of those were huge for the Bears. Though Baylor ends the regular season with the No. 6 seed, both the Bears and Texas Tech finished one game under .500, so they're pretty even. When comparing NCAA tournament resumes, Baylor's is stronger than Texas Tech's because of the series win in Lubbock, and because the Bears have won six of their last seven games while the Red Raiders have lost five of their last six. Kendall Rogers of Yahoo! Sports NCAA Baseball said Texas Tech and Kansas both lost almost all hope of earning at-large berths into the NCAA tournament, and that means Baylor is the Big 12's best candidate for a fifth team. We have yet to see a projection that says the Big 12 will get fewer than five teams into the tournament field. The Bears still need to take care of business in Oklahoma City. One win should be enough, and two will almost definitely be enough, but the only way to be absolutely sure the Bears' season continues after the Big 12 tournament is to win it. Here is the schedule for the Big 12 Championship: Wednesday: Thursday: Friday: Saturday: Sunday: That's all for now, but don't forget to follow The Kaye Zone on Twitter. Sic em. Baseball's Competition in Bricktown It's amazing how much one game can change things. Kansas was up three runs against Oklahoma heading to the ninth inning, but the Sooners rallied for four and then escaped a jam in the bottom of the ninth to get the win. We owe you Oklahoma. Not only did the Sooners' win move the Bears into sixth place in the conference standings, it also cleared up which teams will play in each pool. Six of the eight seeds are still to be determined, but both pools are perfectly clear. Baylor will be in the same group as Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma. The other pool will consist of Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Missouri. Now that we have that out of the way, let's look at how the remaining six seeds will be determined:
We said it before that we were hoping Baylor would finish sixth or seventh. That's exactly what has happened. While the Bears are just 1-6 against the teams in their pool, there's a lot more to the story. Let's look at each of Baylor's opponents: Oklahoma - we're going to continue to beat this dead horse ... Baylor outscored the Sooners 11-7 in their series, but the Bears went home with an 0-1 record because the second game was cancelled with Baylor leading 5-0. Add in that the games were on Oklahoma's home field, and this seems like a pretty even matchup. However, the tournament is played in Oklahoma City, so Oklahoma will be playing in front of many of their fans. On the plus side, Baylor will get to play in the bigger crowds of the tournament by being in the pool that will play the last two games on the four-game days. Kansas State - obviously, the numbers show that Kansas State was a better team in this one. The Wildcats swept the Bears by scores of 5-2, 5-2 and 3-2. However, Baylor was playing Kansas State when the Wildcats were playing their best baseball of the season, and they were also playing on the Wildcats' home field. The Bears are perfectly capable of beating Kansas State, especially when they're not playing on the crazy surface that is a turf infield with a grass outfield. Kansas State is 21-6 at home and 7-9 on the road, but the Wildcats have a 7-2 record in neutral site games. Kansas - the Jayhawks took two of three from the Bears at Baylor Ballpark, but this series was a perfect example of why sometimes a series win is overvalued. The deciding game went 14 innings, so it was about as close as any series can be. Brett Bochy got the win in that deciding game after throwing 4.0 innings of perfect relief, but the Jayhawks will be without their closer in Bricktown - he had Tommy John surgery a week after playing in Waco. If nothing else, this tournament will be a good chance for the Bears to redeem themselves against teams they have losing records against this season. Baylor has won five of its eight Big 12 series, and the Bears get another shot at two teams who beat them in series, while the other team in the pool won the only game the teams played by one run. It should be interesting. We hope to see you in Bricktown. That's all for now, but don't forget to follow The Kaye Zone on Twitter. Sic em. Baseball is Heading to Bricktown. Now What? Last night's dramatic ninth-inning rally not only clinched Baylor's spot in next week's Big 12 Baseball Championship, it also moved the Bears into seventh place in the Big 12 standings. This time of year is so much fun for fans because the entertainment doesn't end after their team plays. There's still the chance to do some scoreboard watching. Baylor's win last night was especially important because the Bears got the result they were looking for in each of the four remaining Big 12 games. Kansas State rallied to beat Texas A&M 8-7 in 10 innings, keeping the Bears hopes of catching the Aggies alive. Oklahoma beat Kansas, bringing the Bears within a half game of the Jayhawks. Texas beat Missouri, moving Baylor a half game ahead of the Tigers and into seventh place. Last, but not least, Nebraska pulled off a nice win against Texas Tech, helping the Bears' regional hopes. The fourth game is debatable, because the Bears technically can't catch Texas Tech in the Big 12 standings. However, Baylor can finish one game below .500, as can the Red Raiders, so Texas Tech would only be ahead of Baylor based on percentage points (they'll have played two more games). Combine that with Baylor's series win in Lubbock last weekend, and if it comes down to Texas Tech and Baylor for the last regional bid out of the Big 12 Conference, there's a good chance it goes to the Bears if that scenario unfolds. Again, it's debatable. Texas Tech dropped to 51 in the RPI with its loss, and that technically hurts the Bears because one of the things the tournament committee looks at is record against the RPI top 50. Still, if things fall the Bears' way this weekend, they could finish in a virtual tie for fourth place in the league, and if that's the case, they're in good shape heading to Bricktown. Now that we have that out of the way, let's reexamine the possible scenarios:
As we noted before, it's important for the Bears to finish sixth or seventh, because in pool play the eighth seed will open against Texas, while the No. 6 and 7 seeds wouldn't have to play the Longhorns until the championship game, if at all. The Bears showed that they can hang with Texas when they lost in 10 and 14 innings against the Longhorns, but when one team enters the final weekend 7.5 games ahead of everyone else in the league, you would like to avoid them. On the flip side, if the Bears did play Texas in the first round and were able to beat the Longhorns, that would do more for their NCAA tournament resume than any other win in the tournament. We'll reexamine the scenarios after Saturday's game. That's all for now, but don't forget to follow The Kaye Zone on Twitter. Sic em. Baseball's Big 12 Tournament Scenarios We're finally at the point in the season where we can narrow it down to a few different scenarios that could play out. However, there are only two things that have been set in stone in the Big 12 race, and they just so happen to be at the top and the bottom. Texas has already clinched first place in the conference, and while Nebraska hasn't locked up 10th place, there is no way the Cornhuskers can advance to the Big 12 tournament. Everything else is subject to change. Here's one thing we know for sure - when Baylor and Oklahoma State play at Baylor Ballpark this weekend, the teams will be playing with the last spot in next week's Big 12 Championship on the line. But, that doesn't mean they're playing for eighth place. Though it's unlikely, it's still possible Baylor could finish as high as fifth place in the league standings. Now that we have that out of the way, let's jump into each possible scenario and examine the probabilities:
Basically, the Bears control their own destiny as far as getting into the tournament, but anything better than an eighth-place finish will require some help. Not getting to finish the second game at Oklahoma could prove costly to the Bears. It's not often that you can outscore a team (Baylor 11, Oklahoma 7) and lose the tie-breaker because the other team won the only game played in the series. Obviously, the Sooners outscored Baylor 7-6 officially, but we all know the Bears were ahead 5-0 when the second game was whiped out by rain and snow. Last but not least, a little on why the seedings matters. First of all, only Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M have likely locked up regional bids. Kansas State, Kansas, Baylor and Texas Tech are all fighting for what will likely be the fourth, fifth and sixth regional bids awarded to Big 12 teams. It's also important to note that because of pool play, the eighth seed will open against Texas, while the No. 6 and 7 seeds wouldn't have to play the Longhorns until the championship game, if at all. The Bears showed that they can hang with Texas when they lost in 10 and 14 innings against the Longhorns, but when one team enters the final weekend 7.5 games ahead of everyone else in the league, you would like to avoid them. On the flip side, if the Bears did play Texas in the first round and were able to beat the Longhorns, that would do more for their NCAA tournament resume than any other win in the tournament. Still, most Baylor fans would probably prefer to get the sixth or seventh seed, if for no other reason than because it might look better on an NCAA tournament resume when the committee is deciding which five, six or seven Big 12 teams to take. That's all for now, but don't forget to follow The Kaye Zone on Twitter. Sic em. Baseball's Big 12 Tournament Scenarios We're finally at the point in the season where we can narrow it down to a few different scenarios that could play out. However, there are only two things that have been set in stone in the Big 12 race, and they just so happen to be at the top and the bottom. Texas has already clinched first place in the conference, and while Nebraska hasn't locked up 10th place, there is no way the Cornhuskers can advance to the Big 12 tournament. Everything else is subject to change. Here's one thing we know for sure - when Baylor and Oklahoma State play at Baylor Ballpark this weekend, the teams will be playing with the last spot in next week's Big 12 Championship on the line. But, that doesn't mean they're playing for eighth place. Though it's unlikely, it's still possible Baylor could finish as high as fifth place in the league standings. Now that we have that out of the way, let's jump into each possible scenario and examine the probabilities:
Basically, the Bears control their own destiny as far as getting into the tournament, but anything better than an eighth-place finish will require some help. Not getting to finish the second game at Oklahoma could prove costly to the Bears. It's not often that you can outscore a team (Baylor 11, Oklahoma 7) and lose the tie-breaker because the other team won the only game played in the series. Obviously, the Sooners outscored Baylor 7-6 officially, but we all know the Bears were ahead 5-0 when the second game was whiped out by rain and snow. Last but not least, a little on why the seedings matters. First of all, only Texas, Oklahoma and Texas A&M have likely locked up regional bids. Kansas State, Kansas, Baylor and Texas Tech are all fighting for what will likely be the fourth, fifth and sixth regional bids awarded to Big 12 teams. It's also important to note that because of pool play, the eighth seed will open against Texas, while the No. 6 and 7 seeds wouldn't have to play the Longhorns until the championship game, if at all. The Bears showed that they can hang with Texas when they lost in 10 and 14 innings against the Longhorns, but when one team enters the final weekend 7.5 games ahead of everyone else in the league, you would like to avoid them. On the flip side, if the Bears did play Texas in the first round and were able to beat the Longhorns, that would do more for their NCAA tournament resume than any other win in the tournament. Still, most Baylor fans would probably prefer to get the sixth or seventh seed, if for no other reason than because it might look better on an NCAA tournament resume when the committee is deciding which five, six or seven Big 12 teams to take. That's all for now, but don't forget to follow The Kaye Zone on Twitter. Sic em. Week 12 Rewind Baylor entered week 12 on the ropes after being swept by Texas to fall to 7-12 in Big 12 play with six conference games remaining. The Bears were No. 50 in the RPI, and nearly every projection had them on the wrong side of the NCAA tournament bubble. Fast forward a week later, and the Bears are in better shape. There's still work to do, but the task at hand has gotten easier. Baylor needed to win its last two Big 12 series, which seemed like a daunting task considering the Bears hadn't won a series in Lubbock since 1998, and that's exactly where last week's series was played. Baylor had gone 2-13 in its last five trips to Lubbock. If the Bears didn't win the series, we'd probably be sitting here saying they need to win the Big 12 tournament to get a regional bid. Instead, the Bears came up huge, taking two of three from the team that entered the weekend in second place in the league. Friday's game was rained out, which was another good news/bad news situation. It set up a doubleheader on Saturday, and history has shown that it's historically difficult to win or lose both games of a doubleheader. The bad news was that it would be tough for Baylor to win both, but the good news is that a split would set up a rubber game on Sunday, and that's exactly what happened. Logan Verrett pitched the Bears past the Red Raiders in game one, but quite a few things went against Baylor in game two. For example, Baylor looked like it had taken a lead in the first inning when Brooks Pinckard slid home on a grounder to third. Here's a picture of the play (courtesy Lubbock Avalanche-Journal). Unfortunately, Pinckard was called out on the play. While the Bears ended up losing by two runs, that play loomed large. However, Baylor still had chances with the potential tying run in scoring position in both the eighth and ninth innings. Losing that game was tough, but coming back and winning in dominating fashion on Sunday - with their backs against the wall - said a lot about the players on this team. It couldn't have been scripted any better that for senior catcher Gregg Glime to hit a game-winning grand slam off former USA Collegiate National Team member Chad Bettis. On top of that, Max Muncy gave the Bears some insurance runs when he got back on track with his 11th homer of the season - also off of Bettis. Unfortunately, the next pitch Bettis threw, which happened to be against Glime, was a fastball that landed in Glime's back, prompting Bettis' ejection. Starting pitcher Craig Fritsch battled his way through 4.0 innings before turning the ball over to Josh Turley, who turned in 3.2 innings of excellent relief before Willie Kempf finished off the win. It was a great team effort to get the Bears their first series win in Lubbock since Sunday's winning pitcher, Turley, was seven years old. Back to the Bears' regional hopes. With last night's win against Dallas Baptist, Baylor jumped six spots from No. 50 to No. 44 in the RPI, according to Boyd's World. Beating Dallas Baptist alone wasn't enough to make that kind of jump - the Bears got some help from teams ahead of them losing and teams they've played this season winning (thus improving Baylor's strength of schedule, which improves RPI ranking). Baylor now just needs one win this weekend to secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship. If the Bears were to get swept, there's no point in discussing regional hopes, so for argument's sake, let's assume Baylor wins at least one game against Oklahoma State. Earning a spot in the conference tournament would guarantee at least three more games against Big 12 opponents. If the Bears go 4-2 in those six games, they have a good chance for a regional berth. If they go 5-1 they're almost surely in, but if they go 3-3, it's going to be a close call. Baylor can finish as high as fifth in the conference standings, but check back later today for a full breakdown on what needs to happen for the Bears to finish anywhere from fifth through eighth. PLAYER OF THE WEEK Gregg Glime, Senior, Catcher, Aurora, Colo. (Smoky Hill HS) PITCHER OF THE WEEK Here's what local print media outlets had to say throughout the weekend: From the Waco Tribune-Herald: That's all for now, but don't forget to follow The Kaye Zone on Twitter. Sic em. Week 11 Rewind It's been a long wait during the 11-day stretch without a Baylor baseball game, but with this weekend's series against Texas Tech only a few days away, it's time to take a look back at what happened during the 11th week of the Bears' season. With five games - three of which were on the road - against a pair of teams who were ranked as high as No. 5 in the nation, we knew the 11th week would be the toughest of the season. A 2-3 record would've been respectable, while a 3-2 mark would've been huge for the Bears' postseason hopes. Both of those could've easily happened, but as it turned out, quite a few things went against the Bears on their way to a 1-4 record. That 1-4 could've easily been switched to 4-1 with a few breaks, but if we're being honest, we should note that the Bears had a few opportunities to make their own breaks and they weren't able to do so. The first game of the week - at TCU on Tuesday, April 27 - would turn out to be a sign of things to come. The Bears rallied from behind to take a lead to the ninth inning, only to lose a game when leading after eight innings for the first time since 2008. This year's Baylor squad hadn't lost a game when leading at any point after the sixth inning, but TCU stole a win with a run in the ninth and another in the 10th. Baylor got its revenge and then some when the teams met again the following day at Baylor Ballpark. The Bears jumped out to an early lead and never looked back in a 14-4 drubbing that ended after eight innings due to the mercy rule. With the win, it appeared Baylor might be poised to break out of an offensive slump, but the best pitching staff in the nation was too much over the weekend. The Bears again came from behind to take a 2-1 lead in the sixth inning of Friday night's game, but a two-out bouncer found its way through the middle of the infield in the eighth, allowing Texas to tie the game. Still, the Bears had a chance to regain the lead in the bottom half with two on and no outs, but they couldn't get a bunt down, and then Texas made a terrific defensive play to turn a RBI single into a double-play grounder. Texas took advantage of Baylor's missed opportunities and handed the Bears their second 10-inning loss of the week. Saturday's game was the Bears' first nationally televised game of the season, and clearly Baylor wanted to extend its television exposure. The Bears were trailing 1-0 heading to the ninth, but Logan Vick led off with a single and came around to score the tying run to send the game to extra innings. The Baylor bullpen held Texas for the 11th straight inning in the 13th, but the Longhorns broke through to win 2-1 in the 14th. Looking back on Saturday's game, Baylor easily could've won without the game ever going to extras. Texas got its only run before the 14th on a hit-and-run double. If the runner isn't going on the pitch, it's unlikely he scores all the way from first base. Additionally, Baylor had a chance to tie it in the sixth when Raynor Campbell doubled to right, but Landis Ware was thrown out at the plate after two perfect throws. Sunday's game summed up the entire week, as a missed opportunity to tie or take the lead in the sixth proved to be the Bears' best chance to win the game, and Texas completed the sweep with a 4-1 win. Logan Vick's RBI double got the Bears within one in the sixth, and with two runners in scoring position and no outs, Baylor had a chance to take a lead, but the next three Bears up struck out to end the threat. Let's face it ... week 11 was one that we'd all like to forget. However, it's not as if the Bears were outclassed by their opponents. Three extra-inning losses show that this Baylor team can compete with anyone, but it's just a matter of coming through at the right time to turn an extra-inning loss into a win. There's no better time than this weekend to make that happen. The Bears enter the week ranked No. 50 in the RPI. Texas Tech enters the week at No. 44. Two wins in Lubbock would get the Bears back in the mix for a regional berth, but that's a good news/bad news situation. The bad news is that Baylor hasn't won a series in Lubbock since 1998. There have been a number of difficult losses in that stretch, more notably game two of the 2004 series, when the Bears put up 12 in the seventh to take an 18-10 lead, only to see Texas Tech answer with nine runs to regain the lead on its way to a 19-18 win. As a side note, the Red Raiders' starting pitcher in that game was Dallas Braden, who just spun the 19th perfect game in Major League Baseball history. Braden allowed five runs in 4.0 innings in that game, which isn't a very impressive line, but considering that the teams combined for 37 runs, it wasn't all that bad. That was the only time Braden pitched against the Bears in his three years in Lubbock (tip of the cap to Larry Little aka The Pen for sharing his ridiculous memory). Back to the Bears' regional hopes. As of right now, most projections have the Bears on the wrong side of the bubble. Baylor has six Big 12 games remaining, and assuming the Bears play well enough to earn a spot in the Big 12 Championship, they'll have at least three games there. With nine games against conference opponents remaining, the opportunity is still there and the Bears control their own destiny. PLAYER OF THE WEEK Raynor Campbell, Senior, Second Baseman, Katy, Texas (Taylor HS) CO-PITCHERS OF THE WEEK Turned in best outing of season by holding Texas to one run on six hits with no walks and 11 strikeouts in 8.0 innings in Saturday's game ... Allowed five singles and one double, and the only run that scored came around on a hit-and-run double ... In eighth and final inning, struck out all three batters swinging ... Tied season high with 11 strikeouts - also struck out 11 in season opener against Duke ... Faced just four batters over the minimum in 8.0 innings. Here's what local print media outlets had to say throughout the weekend: From the Waco Tribune-Herald: From The Baylor Lariat: That's all for now, but don't forget to follow The Kaye Zone on Twitter. Sic em. |
 |
 |
 |
 |
